Chicago Fed National Activity Index as Leading Indicator to Steel Supply

Written by: Peter Wright

Chicago Fed national Activity Index, (CFNAI) is a widely respected measure of both overall and detailed economic activity in the US. The index’s three-month moving average, increased to +0.30 in January from +0.23 in December. Given the substantial upward revisions for November and December, January’s result marked the third consecutive reading above zero, (Figure 1 below). Additionally, January’s reading suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.