August Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence increased slightly in August and the 3MMA improved from 79.1 also to 81.5 the highest value since February 2008 and up by 18.4 year over year. The view of both the present situation and expectations improved on a 3MMA basis. The consumer’s view of the present situation was up from 69.0 to 71.0 and expectations increased from 85.9 to 88.6.

Year over year improvements were 24.7 and 14.3 respectively (Figure 1). Please note that these numbers are three month moving averages, those below in the official press release are monthly. In hindsight there were many indicators that had a lead on the last recession and this was one of them. The composite consumer confidence was heading south six months before the recession began. Figure 1 shows that the trajectory of improvement of the view of the present situation is slower than after either of the previous two recessions.