Steel Markets
January 18, 2014
Housing Permits & Starts Growth Slowed Throughout 2013
Written by Peter Wright
The most significant observation about housing permits and starts in 2013 was how the growth rate of both single and multi-family slowed progressively during the year. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the year-over-year growth rate of single family declined from 29.6 percent in March to 10.8 percent in December as multi-family declined from 51.1 percent in February to 13.7 percent in December.
The good news is that the 3MMA of total starts exceeded a million in the Q4 for the first time since the recession. The decline in the y/y growth rates is probably a result of the mortgage shock in the spring when rates rose by about 1 percent. In Q4 the growth trajectory of both single and multi-family returned to their previous levels (Figure 1). At the present rate of increase, single family could reach the one million rate around October next year.
