SMU Data and Models
January 18, 2014
Service Center Inventories: SMU Projections
Written by John Packard
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) produced their analysis of service center shipments and inventories as of the end of December 2013. According to the MSCI flat rolled inventories stood at 4,981,400 tons which represented a 2.6 month’s supply on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and 2.1 months supply based on seasonally adjusted data. Steel Market Update (SMU) produces an analysis of the service center data for our Premium Level members. The resulting Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit analysis and forecast is a leading indicator as to new mill order patterns from the service center group which are critical to lead times and thus the ability of the domestic mills to keep prices from falling.
Our Apparent Excess/Deficit analysis of the December distributor data resulted in service center inventories being balanced at +2,000 tons. This was due to an increase in flat rolled inventories of 337,300 tons over the prior month. Inventories are also very close to the 5,181,000 tons reported by the MSCI at the end of December 2012. Shipments increased in December year-over-year and were very close to the November 2013 levels.
