Consumer Confidence in February

The consumer confidence index declined by 1.3 in February driven by an increase of 4.4 in the present situation component and a decline of 5.4 in consumer expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations increased which caused the composite to rise from 76.3 to 78.3 (Figure 1).

The average value of the composite index since 1980 has been 93.8, a level which at the present rate of growth won’t be realized until late 2016. On a year over year basis using a 3MMA the composite is up by 14.0 lead by consumers view of the present situation which is up by 17.4 (Table 1). All the sub-components in Table 1 are green. The consumers view of job opportunities is improving as are income expectations. Intentions for home and auto purchase are up year over year and the recent reported weakness in the housing market is not reflected in the consumer confidence index for which the housing component has been more or less flat since July. As the year progresses, other factors will support consumer sentiment.