Apparent Excess at +28,000 tons in February

Based on the most recent MSCI flat rolled steel data Steel Market Update has calculated that U.S. service centers dwindled their “Excess” inventories from +150,000 tons at the end of January to +28,000 tons at the end of February. Our forecast from last month was for service center excess to drop to +80,900 tons. So, we weren’t too far off. The “SMU Apparent Excess/Deficit” service center inventory analysis and forecast are based on a proprietary model which projects future shipments and inventory levels at the domestic distributors.

As you can see by the graphics below February flat rolled shipments and inventories were almost exactly the same compared to this time last year.