Third Estimate of Q4 2013 Gross Domestic Product

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third estimate of real GDP today, (March 27th) for Q4 2013. The third is normally the final estimate though there sometimes are revisions further back in time. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, this was an upward revision from the second estimate of 2.4 percent, but still well below the advance estimate of 3.2 percent. For the year as a whole GDP rose by 2.59 percent to 15.942 trillion dollars (Chained 2009 dollars.)

Personal consumption, the largest individual component of GDP rose by 2.22 percent, its best performance since Q4 2010. In Q4 personal consumption accounted for 67.94 percent of GDP (Figure 1). All other components contributed 0.38 percent meaning that they were more or less a wash. On the positive side next exports contributed 0.99 percent and government was the exact opposite with a negative contribution of 0.99 percent. Fixed residential, (housing) investment made a negative contribution of 0.26 percent, its first negative contribution since Q3 2010. Fixed nonresidential contributed 0.68 percent making 3 consecutive quarters of solid growth. Inventories which are the most volatile component of GDP broke even in the fourth quarter.