Economy
April 22, 2014
Chinese Economic Statistics in Q1 2014
Written by Peter Wright
Chinese statistical data is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. However at SMU we believe that in spite of these concerns what we have is all there is and its importance is driven by the huge and excess steel capacity of China.
From what we understand the Chinese economy is becoming more consumer oriented and less dependent on fixed asset expenditures which are the largest consumer of steel products. If domestic Chinese steel demand declines will capacity be reduced or will companies increase exports to relieve the pressure. As we see it there are two underlying and conflicting motivators. These are the environment and employment. We have no idea which of these will prevail but what follows here is some macro-economic data that we track to try to get a view of the future.
