Economy
April 28, 2014
The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index and Steel Supply
Written by Peter Wright
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece.
The official statement reads as follows: “The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to a neutral reading in March from –0.14 in February, marking its third consecutive non-positive value, (Figure 1). March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was at its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. Fifty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 34 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 51 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged.
