Flat, Long, and Semi-Finished Imports through May 2014

Licensed data for May was updated on June 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in our premium product. The early look, the latest of which you are reading now, has been based on three month moving averages (3MMA) using May licensed data, April preliminary data and March final data. We recognize that the license data is subject to significant revisions but believe that by combining it with earlier months data in this way gives a reasonably accurate assessment of total volume as early as possible. The main issue with the license data is the month in which the tonnage arrives. We are currently investigating the relationship between licensed tonnage and month of arrival in this newsletter. Stay tuned.

Figure 1 shows the 3MMA through May licenses for semi-finished, flat and long products. Flat includes all hot and cold rolled sheet and strip plus all coated sheet products plus both discrete and coiled plate. The anticipated import surge is now underway for each of these major categories.