Steel Products Prices North America
June 15, 2014
Investigation into the Accuracy of Licensed Import Data
Written by Peter Wright
Industry and economic data is always subject to inaccuracies so we at SMU try to compare different data sources to get the best handle on a situation. Housing and non-residential construction starts are examples that come to mind. In the case of steel imports we have three reports produced by the US Department of Commerce: licensed, preliminary and final tonnages for each product.
The Steel Import Monitoring system has been a widely used tool to provide an advanced look at import volumes using data compiled from steel import licenses. These licenses can be applied for at any time between when the vessel ships to ten days after it arrives. The total licensed tonnage for any product in a given month is available on the first Tuesday on the following month which is about three weeks before the preliminary numbers and about five weeks before the final numbers are released. We decided to review and publish our findings on the degree to which the license numbers for flat rolled steel products accurately predict the final volume using data for the first four months of 2014, (Table 1).
