Economy
June 30, 2014
First Quarter 2014 Third Estimate of United States GDP
Written by Peter Wright
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimate of US GDP growth was a shocker at negative 2.9 percent, this came after the first estimate which was positive 0.1 percent and the second estimate at negative 1.0 percent. This raises the question of whether early estimates are worth considering. The first estimate for the second quarter will be released at the end of July at which time further revisions will be reported back to 1999. At this time last year major historical revisions were reported and these were very significant. Changes in GDP are reported quarter on quarter. Year on year GDP grew at 1.55 percent.
Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 and the latest IMF forecast through 2018. In its April review the IMF reduced its forecast for this year as a whole from 3.0 percent to 2.8 percent and for next year from 3.6 percent to 3.0 percent.
