Keys to Watch During July

This month will be focused on foreign steel imports. The month will kick off on Thursday evening or Friday morning (July 10th or 11th) when the US Department of Commerce is slated to report their final determination regarding the oil country tubular goods (OCTG) dumping suits. This determination is critical to those mills who support the energy sector (oil & gas) as foreign OCTG has been dominating the market for some time with the biggest culprit being South Korea. The domestic steel mills are counting on South Korea to be hit with duties which will need to exceed 25 percent in order to slow the flow of OCTG into the U.S.

The rumor mill has been active for a number of months regarding another trade case coming. The industry believes that there will be a case presented against the Chinese on cold rolled which, when we last checked a little more than a week ago, could be bought CIF, Duty Paid, FOB USA Port for $32.75/cwt or, essentially at domestic hot rolled pricing. There is also speculation that a dumping suit will be filed against China, India and Taiwan on galvanized and Galvalume steels. The expectation is the suits will be filed within a couple of weeks of the final determination of the OCTG dumping suits (with the assumption that the US mills will prevail).