Service Center Intake, Shipments and Inventory in June 2014

Total service center carbon steel shipments in June declined by 56,500 tons to 3.527 million tons. This was almost exactly the same decline as experienced in May and which together almost wiped out the April gain. Shipping days were 21 in June, the same as in April and May. April was the highest monthly shipping month since March two years ago. Tons per day (t/d) shipments declined from 170,600 in May to 168,600 in June, both on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Table 1 shows the performance by product in June compared to the same month in previous years.

This month we have modified Table 1 to try to present a clearer picture of service center activity. It seems to us as we work with many data sources that a completely different picture can be presented depending on how the numbers are sliced and diced. MSCI data certainly falls into this category. Comparing a month’s performance with the previous month is frequently misleading because of seasonal effects. In past versions of Table 1 we compared a single month’s performance with the same month, one, two and three years ago which we have decided was overly cumbersome. In this latest revision we have compared June shipments on a t/d basis with the average t/d for June 2014, June 2013 and June 2012. We then calculate the percent change between June 2014 and June 2013 and with the 3 year June average. We hope this give the best possible view of market direction. Shipments of all products on a t/d basis were up by 4.7 from June last year and up by 3.2 percent from the average June shipments for 2014, 2013 and 2012. The fact that the single month comparison has a greater improvement than the three year comparison leads us to the conclusion that the improvement is accelerating. This is particularly true of plate. Structurals were the only product that slowed on this basis. Sheet products were up by 4.9 percent year over year and by 4.1 percent in the three year comparison.