Economy
July 31, 2014
GDP Q2 2014 First Estimate
Written by Peter Wright
On Wednesday this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2014, GDP and select components were revised back to the first quarter of 1999. The total revision in GDP for the 15.25 years period from Q1 1999 through Q1 2014 was only $200B on $215T so overall very minor but there were substantial changes to individual quarters. Of most immediate note Q1 2014 was revised up from the “Final” evaluation of -2.96 percent to -2.1 percent and Q4 2013 was revised up from 2.6 percent to 3.5 percent. All exhibits in this report have been corrected back through 1999.
Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 and the latest IMF forecast through 2018. The advance estimate for GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.89 percent, in line with Q3 and Q4 last year and indicating that the negative 1st Q result of -2.1 percent was an outlier resulting from severe winter weather, a major inventory swing and a deterioration in net exports. GDP in Q2 this year based on this first estimate was $15.986 trillion. Last week the IMF reduced its growth forecast for the US in 2014 to 1.7 percent down from the April estimate of 2.8 percent, (See below). Based on the upward revision of Q1 and the very healthy result for Q2, (assuming it holds) the IMF will no doubt raise their forecast.
