Accuracy of Import License Data for 1st Six Months 2014

One of our contributing writers (and Steel 101 instructor) Peter Wright, analyzes foreign steel import data once every couple of months in order to see how accurate the license data is trending versus the Final Census data which is produced once per month (2 months behind receipt of foreign steel). We recently received Final Census Data for the month of June 2014. SMU, through Peter Wright, produces foreign import articles where he uses a three month moving average as a way of making the data more viable. Separately, SMU produces reports 3 to 4 times per month based on the current and prior month license data in order to track how import volumes are trending by product. Our most recent report was produced on Thursday of this past week (SMU August 14, 2014 must be logged in to access article from link).

Steel import data is reported three times for each month. These reports are licensed, preliminary and final tonnages for each product. The Steel Import Monitoring system has been a widely used tool to provide an advanced look at import volumes using data compiled from import licenses. These licenses can be applied for at any time between when the vessel ships to ten days after it arrives so there is not an exact overlap with a calendar month of receipts. The total licensed tonnage for any product in a given month is available on the first Tuesday of the following month, which is about three weeks before the preliminary numbers and about five weeks before the final numbers are released.