Manufacturing & Steel Production Forecasts for 2015

Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July.  This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 104.11 which was the highest value ever and the third straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded 4 percent year over year. This was the ninth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has expanded for 21 straight months and is up by 4.4 y / y. Data is seasonally adjusted. This index is based on the July 2007 level being defined as 100, (Fig 1).