Economy
February 25, 2015
Consumer Confidence 3MMA Rises for 14th Straight Month
Written by Peter Wright
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined in February after a very strong increase in January. In addition, the January results were revised upwards. In February the composite fell from 103.8 to 96.4, the view of the present situation fell from 113.9 to 110.2 as expectations fell from 97.0 to 87.2.
The good news is that in our SMU reports we discount monthly results and focus on three month moving averages (3MMA). On that basis the composite has risen for 14 straight months and in February rose from 96.0 to 97.8. This increase was driven by the consumer’s view of the present situation the 3MMA of which increased from 102.5 to 108.0. The 3MMA of the expectations component did decrease from 91.6 to 90.9. The 3MMA of the composite at 97.8 is now well above the 35 year average which stands at 90.6 since 1980. The 3MMA of the composite, the view of the present situation and expectations are shown in Figure 1.
