Flat, Long, and Semi-Finished Steel Imports Analysis through April 2015

Licensed data for April was updated on May 5th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to our premium members. The early look, the latest of which you are reading now, has been based on three month moving averages (3MMA) using April licensed data and February and March final data.

We recognize that the license data is subject to revisions but believe that by combining it with earlier months in this way gives a reasonably accurate assessment of volume trends by product as early as possible. The main issue with the license data is that the month in which the tonnage arrives is often not the same month in which the license was recorded. In 2014 as a whole, our data showed that the reported licensed tonnage of all carbon and low alloy products was 2.3 percent less than actually receipts, close enough we believe to confidently include licensed data in this current update. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of April were 2,625,543 short tons which was 14.5 percent less than the March final result. On this basis flat rolled was down by 21.1 percent, long products by 18.5 percent and pipe and tube by 2.2 percent. Rail product results look questionable with over a fivefold increase, but this was due to a very low number in March and a return to normal in April. At SMU we prefer not to dwell on single months results because of the extreme variability typified by rail products. In the comments below we rely on three month moving averages to get a more representative picture.