Economy
May 27, 2015
Consumer Confidence Trend Analysis Through May
Written by Peter Wright
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose one point in May to 95.4 as April was revised downwards by one point. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations. The view of the present situation rose from 105.1 to 108.1 as expectations fell slightly from 87.1 to 86.9.
The three month moving average (3MMA) of the composite declined from 98.1 to 97.0 and it looks now as though the result of the 3MMA for March at 101.3 was an outlier. In which case the 3MMA will decline again in June when the March value is dropped from the calculation. The 3MMA of both the present situation and expectations are currently above the five year trend line (Figure 1).
