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    SMU Data and Models

    Service Center Inventories Slow to Drop in SMU Apparent Excess Model

    Written by John Packard


    Before the ink had dried on last month’s service center flat rolled inventory “Apparent Excess/Deficit” report and forecast we knew our forecast was being a bit too optimistic. This was pointed out to us in an email from a large service center who has been following our Apparent Excess since the beginning.

    “I read with interest the report on the apparent excess. I understand the logic in using the past 3 year’s average for shipments.

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