Economy
June 30, 2015
Consumer Confidence: June 2015
Written by Peter Wright
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board jumped by 6.8 points in June, as May was revised down slightly. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations and this month’s result is a perfect example of why not to get too carried away by one month’s result in either direction.
The three month moving average was unchanged. The composite value of consumer confidence has been quite erratic in the last few months. Since December the monthly results have been 93.1, 103.8, 98.8, 101.4, 94.3, 94.6, and 101.4 in June. As can be seen, in the 3MMA calculation we dropped March at 101.4 and added June at 101.4 so there was no change. In June the view of the present situation rose from 107.1 to 111.6 as expectations rose from 86.2 to 94.6. The 3MMA of the present situation increased by 0.7 to 107.9 as the 3MMA of expectations fell by 0.5 to 89.3. The 3MMA of the present situation is now above the five year trend line and that of expectations is almost exactly on trend (Figure 1).
