Flat, Long, and Semi-Finished Steel Imports Analysis

Licensed data for July was updated on August 4th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. Steel Market Update publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to our premium members.

The early look, the latest of which you are reading now has been based on three month moving averages (3MMA) using July licensed data and June preliminary and May final data. We recognize that the license data is subject to revisions but believe that by combining it with earlier months in this way gives a reasonably accurate assessment of volume trends by product as early as possible. The main issue with the license data is that the month in which the tonnage arrives is often not the same month in which the license was recorded. In 2014 as a whole our data showed that the reported licensed tonnage of all carbon and low alloy products was 2.3 percent less than actually receipts, close enough we believe to confidently include licensed data in this current update. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of July were 2,440,697 short tons which was 3.8 percent more than the June preliminary result. On this basis flat rolled was up by 4.8 percent, long products up by 12.6 percent and pipe and tube down by 13.3 percent. At SMU we prefer not to dwell on single months results because of the extreme monthly variability that can occur in individual products. In the comments below we use three month moving averages to get a more representative picture.