Consumer Confidence for August 2015

Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, and in out last report we wrote, “There is no multi month trend in recent data therefore we see no reason to be concerned about the July result which is slightly higher than the 25 year average.” We were not surprised by the huge bounce back in this week’s data in which the index rose from 91.0 in July to 101.5 in August. This is another example of why not to get too carried away by one month’s result in either direction.

The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations and its three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 2.3 points in August. The 3MMA of the view of the present situation improved by 2.7 points and expectations increased by 2.1 points. The composite value of consumer confidence has been much more erratic this year than it was in 2014. In all of last year the monthly change ranged from + 5.1 to – 4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to -8.9 points.