Economy
October 27, 2015
October Consumer Confidence Continues Erratic Trend
Written by Peter Wright
Consumer confidence continued this year’s highly erratic trend in the October data. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month this year than last. In all of 2014 the monthly change ranged from +5.1 to -4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to -8.9 points. In October the composite declined by 5.0 points to 97.6 but the three month moving average (3MMA) increased by 2.2 points to 100.5 points. This is another example of why not to get too carried away by one month’s result in either direction.
The index is based on 1985 = 100. The composite value of consumer confidence combines the view of the present situation and of expectations for the next six months. The month/month value of both the present situation and expectations declined in September but the 3MMA of both increased. The 3MMA of the present situation continues to be above the five year trend line and that of expectations is now slightly above its 5 year trend line (Figure 1).
