Economy
November 30, 2015
November 2015 Consumer Confidence
Written by Peter Wright
Consumer confidence declined markedly in November continuing this year’s highly erratic trend and, in fact, the view of the present situation and expectations exhibited the sharpest reversal since November 2011 when they went the other way.
As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month this year than last. In all of 2014 the monthly change ranged from +5.1 to -4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to -8.8 points. In November the composite declined by 8.7 points to 90.4 but the three month moving average (3MMA) decreased by only 3.6 to 97.4 points. In the first 11 months of 2015 there have been 2 months, March and October when the 3MMA of the composite was 101 points. In the other 9 months the total spread was from 95.1 to 98.6 points. The 3MMA of the present situation continues to be above its five year trend and that of expectations has now fallen below its 5 year trend (Figure 1).
