Industrial Production and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in December 2014 but on a month over month basis has declined for nine of the last thirteen months. January was a welcome respite with an increase of 0.92 percent, which is huge, and the largest increase since May 2010. Unfortunately, when we look at the three month moving average (3MMA) and consider year over year changes a completely different picture emerges. The 3MMA has declined for four consecutive months and on a year over year basis the 3MMA became negative in December and January for the first time since February 2010. The January year over year decline was 1.24 percent (Figure 1).