SMU Data and Models
April 18, 2016
Service Center Apparent Excess to Move into Deficit by May
Written by John Packard
Every month Steel Market Update plugs in the MSCI shipment and inventory data for flat rolled steel and we run it through our model to determine if service centers are carrying too much inventory and by how much. We then forecast where we believe shipments and inventories will go over the next few months. From there we predict whether service centers will be under or over inventoried which is our Apparent Excess (over) or Deficit (under). We believe our model is important when considering service center ordering patterns (which have been increasing), how they will handle spot prices, support mill price increases, etc.
First, how did we do regarding our forecast for the month of March?
