Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit Analysis & Forecast

Last month we based our U.S. flat rolled steel service center shipments and inventories on a relatively conservative model. Our belief at that time was both shipments and inventory receipts would be 3 percent below the 3 year average. In actuality shipments were -3.7 percent below year-over-year levels but 7.2 percent below the 3 year average. Carbon flat rolled inventory receipts came in 3.3 percent below year ago levels and 9.0 percent below the 3 year average.

In our model, August shipments would have come in at 2,404,000 tons. Instead the actual number, according to Metal Service Center Institute calculations, was 2,301,000 tons. Shipments did rise from the 1,999,000 tons reported in July but by 103,000 tons less than we had forecast.