Consumer Confidence in September 2016

The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator.

Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May, its lowest value since July last year, to 101.1 in August, then to 104.1 in September, it’s highest value since August 2007. Included below is the official news release from the Conference Board. The three month moving average (3MMA) has risen from 94.4 in May to 100.9 in September. We prefer to smooth the data in this way because of monthly volatility which in the case of consumer confidence has been quite extreme since the beginning of last year. The composite index is made up of two sub-indexes. These are the consumer’s view of the present situation and his / her expectations for the future. The 3MMA of the present situation is now back to its six year trend and expectations are close and closing (Figure 1).