Final Thoughts

There are a number of players in the market that are overly concerned (in my opinion) about the restart of the USS Granite City hot strip mill (they are not yet restarting the two idled blast furnaces so they are not adding any new raw steel production into the market) and Mingo Junction (reported to begin rolling slabs in February). Big River Steel has started melting scrap and produced their first hot rolled coil. Having been through a number of start-ups myself (galvanized lines at Winner Steel now called NLMK Sharon Coatings) and watching the start up of the ThyssenKrupp Calvert operation, I know it takes time to work the bugs out of the system. I expect BRS to have minimal impact on the HR, CR and coated markets during the 1st Quarter 2017.

Between now and the end of the year I am going to once again go out to my trading company friends to see how much foreign steel is actually being offered and what we should anticipate for hot rolled, cold rolled and coated imports during the 1st Half 2017.