US Gross Domestic Product - Q1 2017 First Estimate

The headline report of GDP growth in Q1 came in at 0.7 percent a decline from 3.53 percent in the third quarter and 2.08 percent in Q4 2016. Economy.com had this to say about first quarter tendencies. “The first quarter can be full of surprises; during this expansion, first quarter GDP growth has come in short of consensus expectations every time, with an average absolute forecast error of 0.47 percentage point. Residual seasonality in GDP implies that there is a predictable seasonal pattern. This is clear in the first quarter, as GDP tends to be noticeably weaker than in the subsequent three quarters. The differences are frequent and large enough that they are unlikely a fluke. Also, residual seasonality is evident across many of the major components of GDP, including parts of services spending, exports, federal and state and local government expenditures, and nonresidential structures.”