SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: Tempering Optimism?

Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. We are seeing signs of what has become a normal mild tapering of enthusiasm as we enter the fourth quarter of the year. This can clearly been seen when comparing the three-month moving average (3MMA) for both this year and last (see below graphic). However, the highs were higher this year and the lows that we are seeing at this moment are well above year ago levels.

When looking at the information from a single data point perspective SMU does have some concern. We measured Current Sentiment at +55 which is -11 points below what was measured during the middle of September. One year ago, Current Sentiment as a single data point was +43 which was the lowest point in the cycle and bounced back to +70 by the middle of December. We will have to wait and see if this will be the bottoming point for 2017.