SMU Price Ranges & Indices: It's All About the Calendar

Flat rolled and plate steel prices are all over the place this week. We are seeing a distinct difference in pricing from those mills who still have November and December tonnage compared to those whose lead times are into January and beyond. Hot roll appears to be the strongest product with virtually all of our HRC price sources advising that prices are firm at $600 per ton and higher. The weakest products appear to be galvanized and cold rolled. However, when you take into consideration the wider-than-historical spread between hot rolled base prices and that of cold rolled and coated (up to $200 per ton instead of $100-$140 per ton), there is room to move, and that may be what we are seeing now.

We have a couple of sources advising of new orders on galvanized below $36.00/cwt base pricing (2017 delivery). This does not mean all of the mills are there. It may only be one mill that is trying to finish filling their order books. I heard from a mill source who told me their view is that the low end on galvanized is $37.50/cwt for a buyer with tons and pricing goes up to $40.00/cwt for smaller orders. The majority of the base pricing referenced by service centers and end user sources calls for cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume in the $38.00/cwt-$39.00/cwt range. We have decided to throw out the sub-$36.00/cwt numbers because they are not readily available to the vast majority of steel buyers.