SMU Data and Models
January 23, 2018
SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit Inventories Forecast
Written by John Packard
Steel Market Update forecast December 2017 flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would be 87,850 tons per day. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 87,805 tons per day. We missed being perfect by 45 tons per day.
Receipts coming into the service centers has been harder to predict. We have been using a four-year average month-to-month change and we have found it to be less than perfect. Our forecast for December called for receipts to rise to 99,219 tons per day. Instead, according to the MSCI numbers, receipts fell to 96,895 tons per day. We had forecast total receipts to be 2,099,600 tons and the MSCI reported 2,411,500 tons as having been received during the month.
