Shipments and Supply of Sheet Products through March

March was a strong month for both steel mill shipments and demand for rolled steel products, but this was partly a seasonal effect. This conclusion is based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce.

March was a good month for both total shipments and supply of steel products. Excluding semis, shipments were up by 10.4 percent and supply was up by 13.3 percent. Apparent supply is a proxy for market demand. In this analysis, we use three-month moving averages, which somewhat dilutes these good results. Which means, “let’s wait and see what April and May bring before reacting.” One consideration is that historically March has had a higher demand level than February and over the last nine years has been up by 9.7 percent on average. Figure 1 shows the seasonality that has existed since January 2010.