Consumer Confidence Declined But Remains Strong in June

Consumer confidence decreased in June and the three-month moving average (3MMA) declined for the second consecutive month, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in June was 126.4, down from 128.8 in May. The 3MMA decreased from 127.1 in May to 126.9 in June, which was 8.8 points higher than in June last year. We prefer to smooth the data with a moving average because of monthly volatility, which in the case of consumer confidence has been quite extreme since the beginning of 2016. The composite index is made up of two sub-indexes. These are the consumer’s view of the present situation and his or her expectations for the future. Both are above their nine-year trend line though drifting down into it (Figure 1).