Economy
July 15, 2018
SMU Recession Monitor: Keep an Eye on the Yield Curve
Written by Peter Wright
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict a recession, but keep a close eye on the yield curve.
Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer limited insight on economic expansion or contraction. Viewed collectively they give subscribers a better idea of present and future business activity. Since World War II, most recessions have been preceded by an overheated economy as indicated by low unemployment, tighter monetary policy and rising long-term interest rates.
