Final Thoughts

International Monetary Fund economists forecast global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2018-19, 0.2 percentage point below their forecast six months ago. While still positive, the expansion has become less balanced and may have peaked in some major economies, the IMF reported in its October World Economic Outlook. Excerpts from the WEO report below clearly show the IMF believes trade tensions between the U.S., China and other nations pose a serious threat to the world economy:

“In the United States, momentum is still strong as fiscal stimulus continues to increase, but the forecast for 2019 has been revised down due to recently announced trade measures, including the tariffs imposed on $200 billion of U.S. imports from China. China and a number of Asian economies are also projected to experience somewhat weaker growth in 2019 in the aftermath of the recently announced trade measures….