SMU Data and Models
October 18, 2018
SMU Lead Times Move...But Enough to Break the Trend?
Written by John Packard
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products ticked up slightly this month, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Could this signal the end of the downtrend? This is an important question considering the domestic steel mills announced price increases just last week.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time, the busier the mill. The busier the mill, the less likely they are to negotiate on price. While the data from one two-week period hardly constitutes a trend, it is the first time in a long time that lead times for all products have moved out rather than in. And it would be consistent with the many who believe the market is near a bottom and flat rolled prices are poised to increase. Lead times for hot rolled now average about four weeks, cold rolled about six weeks, galvanized about six and a half weeks, and Galvalume about seven and a half weeks.
