Final Thoughts

I am keeping the SMU Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator at “Neutral” as I do not yet see any clear-cut signs of a solid push higher on pricing. What I have seen is a possible short-term bottom to the lower end of our range. This helped take our hot rolled index average from $805 to $820 per ton this week.

However, we continue to collect commentary from steel buyers suggesting that the increase will ultimately fail. “The announcement is two weeks to 30 days premature,” is what the president of one service center told us late this afternoon. “It stopped the slide, but I wouldn’t bet against all prices going lower from where they were at the time of the announcement.” He went on to say, “The other scary thing is Trump is talking nice about Turkey now.” The belief by some in the trading community is that the Turks could see their 50 percent tariffs be reduced to 25 percent, which would put them back into the export business sending steel into the United States.