October Consumer Confidence at Highest Since 2000

The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence was revised down for September, but October made up most of that correction. Consumer confidence in October was at its highest level since September 2000. The composite value of consumer confidence in October was 137.9, up from the revised September value of 135.3. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 132.6 in September to 136.0 in October, which was 13.6 points higher than in October last year. We prefer to smooth the data with a moving average because of monthly volatility, which in the case of consumer confidence has been quite extreme since the beginning of 2016. The composite index is made up of two sub-indexes. These are the consumer’s view of the present situation and his or her expectations for the future. Both are above their nine-year trend line and both are accelerating (Figure 1).