Steel Mill Lead Times: Have We Seen the Bottom?

Lead times for spot orders of hot rolled and cold rolled steels appear to have bottomed and extended a bit in early December. Lead times on HR and CR have not been this long since September, but are well below the levels seen when prices were spiking earlier this year. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time, the busier the mill. The busier the mill, the less likely they are to negotiate on price. Lead times for hot rolled now average a bit over four weeks, cold rolled and galvanized a bit over six weeks, and Galvalume about six and a half weeks.

Hot rolled lead times now average 4.19 weeks, up from 3.97 weeks a month ago, and about the same as they were at this time last year. Until the past few weeks, lead times for HR had declined steadily since peaking at 5.73 weeks in April.