Slowing Economy May Put China in a Negotiating Mood

The growth of China’s economy has slowed partly as a result of the tariff war with the United States, and China may be in a mood for serious negotiation.

Once each quarter, we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China in the global steel scene, and these numbers are all that’s available. China’s economic statistics are never revised, which makes analysts suspicious, considering the U.S. routinely makes revisions back decades. Figure 1 shows published data released this week for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the fourth quarter of 2018. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three-month moving averages.