SMU Analysis: Signs of Weakening Trends in Key Market Indicators

Key Market Indicators in January, indicators of the present situation, remained strong, but trends deteriorated to the weakest level in two years.

This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of and provide forward guidance for the steel market.  Due to the government shutdown, 13 of the 36 indicators were not updated in January. These included all the trade, market size and construction results and the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, which should have been released this week. The resultant mix of December and January data shows that 20 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only five negative. The balance is within the band of historically normal. Trends took a step back as negative results increased from 11 in December to 16 in January.