Does the Inverted Yield Curve Mean We’re Headed for Imminent Recession?

Editor’s note: Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence, a highly regarded economist and popular speaker, will once again make an appearance at Steel Market Update’s annual Steel Summit, scheduled for Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta. Click here for more information about the conference or to register. Below are excerpts of his recent comments on the likelihood of the U.S. economy dipping into recession:

If there is anything approaching consensus on the immediate future of the U.S. economy it is that it has become quite fragile. There are more than a few events that could drive the economy deeper into a slowdown and events that could boost growth for another few months or even a year. Longer term it is more obvious that a slowdown is very likely, but it may not be one that falls to the level of a recession.