Leibowitz on Trade: U.S.-China Trade Dispute on Hold

There are a few blanks to fill in, but the outlines of the arrangement so far seem to be: (1) the U.S. will not impose any new tariffs, including the 25 percent tariffs on about $300 billion of imports from China that the U..S Trade Representative had proposed; (2) the orders to “blacklist” Huawei, one of China’s largest electronics companies, are likely to be modified, but no details were available as of Sunday afternoon; (3) the 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion in U.S. imports from China will remain in place; and (4) discussions between the U.S., chaired by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will resume, but no details have emerged on the timing or content of the discussions.

As of now, the USTR exclusion process for List 3 tariffs (the $200 billion of imports that was increased in May to 25 percent from 10 percent) remains in place. Exclusion requests may be submitted from today (June 30) through Sept. 30. I have mentioned this process in previous updates. In addition, China has launched a product exclusion process for the tariffs that country imposed in retaliation for the U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports. The deadline for filing an exclusion request is July 3 for the first two lists and Oct. 18 for the third list. The third Chinese list covers $60 billion of U.S. exports to China.

Huawei appears to be considerably better off under the interim deal; as noted, however, the Department of Commerce has not withdrawn any findings or penalties on Huawei up to now. Stay tuned for further developments in the coming week. 

Lewis Leibowitz

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