Economist Beaulieu: Recession? Not Until 2022

Don’t get too worried about a recession just yet, advised ITR economist Alan Beaulieu at the SMU 2019 Steel Summit in Atlanta this week. The economy is slowing down and consumption will be tepid for the rest of this year and into the first half of 2020. But conditions will improve in the second half of 2020, providing a good year for business in 2021. It’s not until 2022 that the economy will see a serious downturn.

“Looking at the media view, you see a lot of people predicting a full-on recession in the United States next year. I want you to know that is not true. The first half of 2020 will be off, but in the second half of 2020 your businesses will do better. As we head into a presidential election year, there is no macroeconomic recession in 2020—unless we go completely off the rails in terms of international relationships,” Beaulieu said.