Conference Board Reports Strong Consumer Confidence in August

The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 135.1 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 131.7. June’s result of 124.3 now appears to be an outlier as three of the last four months have exceeded 130. This is why we consider a moving average. The composite index is made up of two subindexes: the consumer’s view of the present situation and his or her expectations for the future. In August, expectations returned to trend, but the consumer’s view of the present situation is still below the nine-year trend line (Figure 1).