Conference Board: Signs of Weakening in Consumer Confidence

Both the September and October reports on consumer confidence from The Conference Board suggest a weakening of people’s expectations.    

Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September and experienced another small decline in October. This is quite a volatile indicator and therefore we smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in October was 125.9 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 128.8. Month on month, the 3MMA decreased from 132.1 to 128.8. The composite index is made up of two sub-indexes: the consumer’s view of the present situation and his or her expectations for the future. In October, both consumers’ view of the present situation and their expectations were below the nine-year trend line (Figure 1).